TESLA STALLS AND CHINA EV BRAWLS

⚡️China EV Check-In: NIO, XPeng, BYD — beats, slides, and Europe vibes 🇨🇳🚗🔋

🟣 NIO (NIO) — “Back in growth mode” 🚀

Q2 snapshot: Revenue RMB 23.56B (+48% YoY); net loss narrowed to RMB 6.47B; deliveries 87,426 (+138% YoY). Management guided Q3 deliveries to 97k–102k and revenue to RMB 24.7B–25.9B.
What moved the needle: Big ramp from new sub-brands (Onvo/Firefly), improving gross margin, and strong order flow.
How the stock tends to react: Revenue acceleration + narrowed losses = generally positive sentiment, but the path to profitability and pricing pressure keep swings big. (Press/IR tone supports the “improving fundamentals” narrative.)
Read-through: Short term: momentum from volume growth. Mid term: watch gross margin and execution on sub-brands. Long term: scale = margin leverage if pricing holds.

🟢 XPeng (XPEV) — “Volume monster, profit puzzle” 📈🤖

Q2 deliveries (pre-earnings detail): 103,181 units — a quarterly record, within prior guidance (102k–108k); +242% YoY, +9.8% QoQ. Company flagged strong product cycle (Mona M03, P7+, updated SUVs) and global ambitions with a new P7. Full Q2 financials are released around Aug 19 (Beijing/US time), but unit momentum is clear.
What to watch next: Gross margin trajectory, operating loss trend (recent quarters showed improvement), and guidance on export markets.

🟡 BYD (BYD) — “Europe crown, profit frown” 👑➡️😬

Europe win: BYD has recently overtaken Tesla as Europe’s top-selling EV brand per industry tracking (e.g., April tally), underscoring its export strength and dense lineup.
But near-term sting: Headlines point to a steep quarterly profit drop and share price slide as discounting and export friction bite; several outlets captured the selloff and profit compression narrative.
Interpretation: Short term: margin pressure from price wars + geopolitics. Mid/long term: scale and vertical integration remain advantages, but Europe trade policy and pricing discipline are the swing factors.

🧭 Who’s best positioned right now? (Quick take — not investment advice)

Near-term momentum: XPeng on deliveries; NIO on revenue/guidance traction.
Global brand tailwind: BYD (distribution breadth, Europe presence) — but margins are the watch-item.
Key risks to all three: China price wars, tariff/trade policy, and the pace of software/AD feature monetization.

💡 What to watch next (checklist)

Margins: Are NIO/XPeng sustaining double-digit gross margins as volumes scale?
Export mix: BYD’s Europe cadence vs. policy headwinds; NIO/XPeng rollouts beyond China.
ASP & incentives: Any fresh cuts (or hikes) tell you where pricing power sits.
Guidance quality: Delivery/revenue ranges vs. actuals for Q3/Q4.

TL;DR 🎯

NIO: Big YoY growth, narrower loss, stronger Q3 guide = constructive.
XPeng: Record Q2 deliveries; watch the margin math in the full print.
BYD: Europe leader, but profits just got pinched — execution vs. policy will decide the next leg.

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