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GOODBYE WALGREENS TRUMP STILL ON HIS SCHEMES


đŸ“¶đŸ“ˆ DAILY MARKET VIBES: AT&T’S AIRWAVES MOVE, IBKR’S BIG LEAGUE CALL-UP, LILLY’S PILL PROGRESS, & A FED FIGHT đŸ’„


TL;DR (for the group chat): AT&T is beefing up its wireless muscle, Interactive Brokers just got drafted into the S&P 500, Eli Lilly’s weight-loss pill cleared a key trial, and D.C. drama hit the Fed. Here’s what it means for your watchlist—plus quick fundamentals, vibes, and levels to watch. 🧭


📡 AT&T (T) x EchoStar (SATS): “More Airwaves, Fewer Dead Zones”


What happened: AT&T agreed to buy mid-band spectrum licenses from EchoStar to boost 5G capacity—especially helpful in crowded cities and stadiums. Details weren’t fully disclosed, but this is about capacity + coverage (the lifeblood of telcos).


Why it matters: More spectrum = better service → stronger retention/ARPU → steadier cash flow to fund debt + the dividend.


Stock reaction: Typically modestly positive on spectrum adds (investors like the network edge), but they’ll watch price tags and integration.


Quick fundamentals (ballpark):


  • P/E: usually single-digit to low-teens; Dividend: high (income favorite); Leverage: elevated (debt from legacy deals); Margins: stable/utility-like.

  • 3–5 yr vibe: De-leveraging + fiber/5G build. Income > hyper-growth.


Technicals (simple, no stress):


  • Support: Prior higher-low area after last earnings dip.

  • Resistance: The last earnings-gap top + 200-day moving average.

  • Setup: Range trader until a clean breakout on volume.


Outlook: Gradual improvement if execution stays tight; watch capex and churn. Short term: constructive. Medium term: steady-Eddie. Long term: income compounding.


🧼 Interactive Brokers (IBKR) ➜ S&P 500: “From JV to Varsity”


What happened: S&P Dow Jones Indices said Interactive Brokers is joining the S&P 500, replacing Walgreens. Entry typically brings index-fund demand and a credibility bump.


Why it matters: Inclusion can tighten spreads, deepen liquidity, and attract new institutional holders.


Stock reaction: Usually up into the effective date as passive funds buy. After inclusion, some names chop—so avoid FOMO chasing.


Quick fundamentals (ballpark):


  • P/E: mid-teens to 20s (quality broker with fee/interest tailwinds); Dividend: tiny; Balance sheet: strong, capital-light; Margins: high for a broker.

  • 3–5 yr vibe: Compounder—client growth + interest on balances + options/futures activity.


Technicals:


  • Support: Pre-announcement base.

  • Resistance: Inclusion pop highs.

  • Setup: Momentum into inclusion; watch for “sell-the-news.”


Outlook: Bullish if volumes/rates cooperate. Short: momentum. Mid: steady growth. Long: compounding machine.


💊 Eli Lilly (LLY): “Orforglipron Clears Trial—Pill Path Opens”


What happened: Lilly said its oral GLP-1 pill, orforglipron, cleared a key late-stage trial, paving the way to file for approval. Pills = easier compliance vs injections.


Why it matters: Expands Lilly’s GLP-1 empire beyond injections (Mounjaro/Zepbound). If approved, bigger addressable market.


Stock reaction: Typically green on positive readouts, but GLP-1 names are volatile on any safety/efficacy/data detail.


Quick fundamentals (ballpark):


  • P/E: lofty (growth priced in); Cash flow: huge; Dividend: modest; Balance sheet: healthy; Margins: elite big-pharma.

  • 3–5 yr vibe: GLP-1 leadership + pipeline optionality. Pullbacks happen; trend still up-and-to-the-right long term.


Technicals:


  • Support: Last breakout zone/50-DMA.

  • Resistance: Recent ATH zone.

  • Setup: Buy pullbacks into rising MAs; don’t chase vertical candles.


Outlook: Bullish ST/MT/LT if data cadence stays strong and manufacturing scales.


🏩 Fed Drama: “The Lisa Cook Standoff”


What happened: The White House moved to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook; Cook said she will not resign. Legal authority here is murky and likely to be litigated. Markets care because it adds policy uncertainty on top of inflation & growth noise.


Why it matters: Perceived pressure on Fed independence can shift rate-cut odds, bond yields, and risk appetite.


Market vibe: Mild risk-off headline chops; ultimately data + Powell will steer rates.


🧠 “Are these over/undervalued?” (super quick cheat sheet)


  • AT&T: Often undervalued-looking on P/E and dividend yield; debt is the anchor. Thesis = de-lever + steady ops.

  • IBKR: Fair to slightly rich for a broker—but quality. Thesis = structural growth in active + passive + global.

  • LLY: Rich multiple because GLP-1 growth is massive. Thesis = category dominance + pipeline.

  • Walgreens (WBA) (the one getting replaced): distressed vibe, dividend cut/reset in recent years; tough retail pharmacy backdrop (FYI for context with the S&P swap).


🔎 Actual earnings numbers: These specific linked stories are about M&A/index changes/drug data & Fed news, not quarterly prints. If you want, I’ll pull each company’s latest reported EPS/revenue from their filings and drop them into a neat one-pager with current multiples—just say the word.


🧭 “What do I do with this?”


  • Traders:

    • AT&T: Range trade the spectrum headline; look for a breakout + volume.

    • IBKR: Momentum into S&P inclusion—but plan for post-inclusion chop.

    • LLY: Respect volatility around data headlines; scale in on dips to support.

  • Long-term investors:

    • Core income? AT&T fits (know the debt).

    • Quality growth? IBKR for fintech exposure; LLY for healthcare innovation.

  • Risk check: Fed headlines can whipsaw rates—size positions accordingly. ✂


🏁 Power Ranking (Best risk/reward right now , IMO)


  1. LLY – Category killer w/ pill optionality (but accept premium).

  2. IBKR – S&P tailwind + durable economics.

  3. AT&T – Income + spectrum logic, slower growth but steadying.

  4. WBA – Only for turnaround specialists; not for tourists.


🧳 Who owns this stuff? (big, reputable holders you’ll see a lot)


  • LLY: Vanguard, BlackRock; many quality-growth funds.

  • IBKR: Vanguard, BlackRock; founder stake (Thomas Peterffy) still meaningful historically.

  • AT&T: Vanguard, BlackRock, income funds.

  • WBA: Vanguard, BlackRock; value/turnaround funds.


⚠ Receipts & Reads


  • AT&T buying EchoStar spectrum: capacity boost for 5G.

  • Interactive Brokers to join S&P 500 (replacing Walgreens): index inclusion catalyst.

  • Eli Lilly’s orforglipron clears key trial: pill path for GLP-1 expands.

  • Fed Gov. Lisa Cook says she won’t resign amid ouster move: policy-risk backdrop.


1. AT&T (T) – Spectrum Boost Incoming


  • Price: ~$28.31

  • Why It’s Relevant: Buying mid-band spectrum from EchoStar to bolster 5G capacity.

  • Fundamentals (approx):

    • P/E: ~10–12× — looks cheap compared to telecom peers.

    • Dividend yield: ~6–7% — income punch!

    • Debt-to-equity: High (legacy debt piling up, but manageable).

  • Technical Levels:

    • Support: Around $27.50 (previous consolidation zone)

    • Resistance: $29.50–$30 range (recent highs)

  • Reaction: Modestly positive—markets like infrastructure investments in slow-growth sectors.


2. Interactive Brokers (IBKR) – S&P 500’s New Kid


  • Price: ~$62.65

  • Fundamentals:

    • P/E: ~33× — above its 10-year average (~27×)

    • Dividend yield: ~0.5%, small but growing

    • Debt-to-equity: ~117%, high leverage typical for brokers but ROIs & margins remain strong

  • Technical:

    • Support: ~$60 (post-announcement base)

    • Resistance: ~$65 (intro S&P momentum zone)

  • Take: Inclusion lifts credibility & demand—but current valuation is premium; dip-buy only if you believe in compounding story.


3. Eli Lilly (LLY) – Pill Power Ignites


  • Price: ~$723.52

  • Fundamentals:

    • P/E: Likely mid- to high-30s or 40s — premium for GLP-1 growth.

    • Dividend yield: Modest (~1%) but growing.

    • Margins: Best-in-class pharma; top reputational moat.

  • Technical:

    • Support: ~$700 (rising 50-day MA)

    • Resistance: ~$730–740 (recent swing highs)

  • Take: High valuation, but future optionality with orforglipron and GLP-1 leadership means multi-year growth potential.


4. Walgreens (WBA) – The Replaced One


  • Price: ~$11.91

  • Context: Being swapped out of the S&P 500 in favor of IBKR—a symbolic hit.

  • Take: Weak sentiment reflected by removal; structural retail challenges remain. Not a recommend for now unless deep value/bottom-fishing.



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