NVIDIA SLOWIN BUT KEEPS ON GOIN

U.S. Economy Gets a Mid-Year Boost: Q2 GDP + Corporate Profits Bounce Back

GDP Revision: Stronger Growth Than First Thought

• The U.S. economy rebounded sharply in Q2 2025, with real GDP growth revised upward from 3.0% to 3.3% (annualized)     .

• This growth follows a -0.5% contraction in Q1—the first quarterly decline in three years. The recovery speaks volumes about the economy’s resilience amid recent headwinds     .

What’s Driving the Upgrade?

• Import slump: Businesses front-loaded imports in Q1 to beat tariff increases. When imports plunged in Q2 (by nearly 30%), a major drag on GDP turned into a boost—imports are subtracted in GDP calculations, so the drop lifted the headline figure    .

• Consumer spending & business investment: Both came in stronger than initial estimates, particularly in areas like healthcare, pharmaceuticals, intellectual property, and equipment    .

• Refined measure of demand: “Real final sales to private domestic purchasers”—which strips out volatile import, inventory, and government spending swings—rose 1.9%, up notably from 1.2% earlier   .

Corporate Profits Stage a Comeback

• Corporate profits bounced back with a gain of $65.5 billion in Q2, after a steep $90.6 billion drop in Q1  .

• While tariffs continue inflating input costs—and firms like Caterpillar and GM have flagged potential damage—the rebound hints at a more robust earnings environment in Q2  .

Policy Implications: Fed Faces a Crossroads

• With growth and spending holding up better than feared, the Federal Reserve may feel less urgency to cut rates at its September 16–17 meeting—but lingering risks in labor and inflation remain   .

Bottom Line: What’s the Takeaway?

• Headline GDP growth (3.3%) looks solid, but it’s skewed by temporary trade shifts.

• Underlying demand (1.9%) gives a more realistic growth picture—it’s there, but modest.

• Corporate profits rebounding restores some business confidence, though it’s dampened by ongoing tariff uncertainty.

• Policy tilt remains data-dependent: the Fed may still hold rates if inflation and labor risks persist.

🛡️ CrowdStrike (CRWD) — “Cyber still eating good” 🔐🚀

• What happened: Q2 topped Street on revenue & EPS; recurring revenue and net new logos stayed strong; guidance nudged up.

• Stock vibe: Popped on the print—investors still paying up for durable, high-margin growth.

• Take: Bullish ST/MT/LT if spend stays resilient; premium multiple but backed by execution.

❄️ Snowflake (SNOW) — “Usage cloud go brrr” ☁️📈

• What happened: Beat on revenue/EPS; product revenue + customer counts looked healthy; guidance steady-to-up.

• Stock vibe: Relief rally—consumption trends improving.

• Take: Cautious-Bullish (usage sensitive + spend cycles). Watch margin trajectory.

🖥️ HP Inc. (HPQ) — “PC cycle thawing, printers still… printers” 💻🖨️

• What happened: Q3 key metrics roughly in-line to a hair better; commentary pointed to a slow PC recovery.

• Stock vibe: Meh to modest up—value crowd likes the cash returns.

• Take: Hold—income/FCF play more than growth rocket.

💚 Five Below (FIVE) — “Cheap thrills, rich growth” 🛍️🧃

• What happened: Q2 beat; traffic + store expansion still the sauce.

• Stock vibe: Jumped—low-ticket retail with a growth multiple.

• Take: Bullish MT if comps hold and new stores ramp.

🧢 Urban Outfitters (URBN) — “Anthro/FP carrying the fit” 👗👜

• What happened: Revenue/EPS ahead; Free People & Anthropologie drove the print.

• Stock vibe: Up—fashion mix + DTC working.

• Take: Selectively bullish while brands stay hot.

🛒 Dollar General (DG) — “Trade-down steady, execution key” 🟡🛒

• What happened: Q2 broadly ahead; guidance and margin color matter more than headline beat.

• Stock vibe: Mixed to up—investors want proof on ops turnaround.

• Take: Hold/Bullish MT if shrink/operations improve.

  
  

🥃 Brown-Forman (BF.B) — “Spirits a little flat” 🥃😶‍🌫️

• What happened: Missed; FX and category softness pinched.

• Stock vibe: Slipped—premium spirits demand uneven.

• Take: Hold—quality brand house, but near-term blah.

🛍️ Best Buy (BBY) — “Appliances quiet, services help” 🔧📺

• What happened: Q2 around expectations; big-ticket still soft; services/membership a cushion.

• Stock vibe: Range-bound—value + dividend crowd.

• Take: Hold—waiting on a fuller hardware refresh cycle.

🌭 Hormel (HRL) — “Margins marinating” 🌭📉📈

• What happened: Mixed quarter; cost & category dynamics choppy.

• Stock vibe: Little change; defensive but slow-grow.

• Take: Hold for income, not thrills.

🐻‍❄️ Build-A-Bear (BBW) — “Tiny but mighty” 🧸💚

• What happened: Beat on Q2; niche brand keeps surprising with profitable growth.

• Stock vibe: Spiked—small-cap momentum.

• Take: Spec-Bullish—execution’s been legit, liquidity thinner.

⌚ Movado (MOV) — “Tick-tock slowdown”😬

• What happened: Miss; luxury/discretionary still uneven.

• Stock vibe: Down.

• Take: Cautious till category demand steadies.

  
  

🧠 NVIDIA (NVDA) — “Still the main character” 🤖💥

• What happened: Another blowout AI quarter (data center $$$), strong guidance cadence.

• Stock vibe: Whipsaw but trend up—expectations are skyscraper-high.

• Take: Bullish LT, but short-term moves are all about supply, China headlines, and hyperscaler capex.

🏦 TD Bank (TD) — “Steady Canadian heavyweight” 🍁🏦

• What happened: Q3 results out; credit costs/retail banking color + capital return watched closely.

• Stock vibe: Muted—banks trading macro and credit.

• Take: Income/Value Hold—watch loan losses + margins.

🔎 Valuation & Techs

• Over/Under valued feel (vibes):

  
  

  • Rich growth: CRWD, SNOW, FIVE (need beats + raised guides to keep flying).

  • Reasonable/Value: HPQ, BBY, TD (cash returns, dividends).

  • Mixed: DG, URBN (execution vs. category noise).

  
  

• Support/Resistance cheat-sheet (non-day-trader):

  
  

  • Look for post-earnings gap levels as near-term support; pre-earnings highs as resistance.

  • If price holds above the earnings gap for a week → bullish follow-through odds go up.

  • If it fills the gap fast → caution; the market’s fading the print.

    
    

🧭 What analysts generally say (vibe ranking)

Best → Worst (today’s setup, not life advice):

1. CRWD (elite execution + secular tailwind)

2. NVDA (AI core, big expectations)

3. SNOW (consumption recovery, watch margins)

4. FIVE (unit growth machine)

5. URBN (brand heat = results)

6. DG (turnaround watch)

7. TD (income + stability)

8. HPQ (value/FCF, low growth)

9. BBY (cyclical, fine yield)

10. HRL (defensive, slow)

11. BF.B (FX/category drag)

12. MOV (lux soft)

🧾 Fundamentals (what to actually look at)

• Growth names (CRWD, SNOW, FIVE): focus on revenue growth %, net retention, operating margin, FCF margin, and RPO/backlog. High P/S is normal—needs consistent beats.

• Value/Income (HPQ, BBY, TD, HRL, BF.B): check P/E vs. 5-yr avg, dividend yield & payout, debt/EBITDA, and FCF yield.

• Turnarounds (DG, URBN): watch gross margin, shrink/ops metrics, inventory turns, and guide credibility.

• AI leader (NVDA): watch data center growth, supply, China exposure, and capex plans from mega customers.

🧰 Portfolio cheat codes (for the busy)

• Want growth w/ quality: small positions in CRWD/SNOW, let winners run, trim into euphoric spikes.

• Want income/defense: TD, BBY, HRL (yields + stability), reinvest dividends.

• Want value + optionality: HPQ, DG—need patience on cycles/ops fix.

• Want AI beta: NVDA core or via broad semis ETF.