JACKSON HOLE TMRW TURN STOCKS TO GO LOW

Jobless Claims Jump ⬆ — Labor Market Getting Tense

• Initial Claims: 235,000 – that’s 11,000 more than last week and the highest since June. Economists expected 225,000.

• Continuing Claims: Rose 30,000 to 1.972 million, marking a nearly four-year high.

• What it means: Layoff signals, not panic yet, but hiring is losing steam. Expect unemployment to tick up from 4.2% to 4.3% soon. Trade tariffs and cautious businesses are key drivers.

Walmart’s Mixed Bag: Sales Up, Profits Down, Stock Slides

• Q2 Results:

  • EPS: $0.68 (missed estimates of $0.73)

  • Revenue: $177.4B (+4.8% YoY), beating forecasts

  • Comp Sales: +4.3% in U.S.

  • E-commerce: Up a whopping 25%

  • Full-Year Outlook: Raised to

    • Revenue: +3.75%–4.75%

    • Adjusted EPS: $2.52–$2.62

• Stock Reaction: Despite the strong revenue and guidance, the stock dropped 3%–5% because the EPS miss snapped a long streak of beats.

• Why: Tariff costs are creeping up, and the early miss on profits raised eyebrows—investors worry margins may tighten going forward, despite management’s push to avoid price hikes now.

Futures & Feelings

• U.S. stock futures are a bit shaky—S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all pointing slightly lower. The S&P is now on track for its fifth straight day of losses, as investors sift through earnings, trade moves, and policy buzz.

  
  

Trade Headlines: U.S. & EU Shake Hands

• The U.S. and European Union agreed on a new trade framework: the EU will drop tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and boost access for seafood and agricultural products. The U.S., in return, will set tariffs on EU goods at the higher of MFN or 15%.

  A win-win—but still spicing up market sentiment.

  
  

Meta Hits Pause on AI Hiring

• Meta is putting a hold on recruiting for its AI division, worried about soaring compensation costs (reports of $100M signing bonuses, huh?). Signals caution amid expensive AI competition.

  
  

New Ways to Trade: CME + FanDuel Collab

• A new twist in trading—event contracts! Users on the CME + FanDuel platform will soon be able to bet on financial and economic outcomes (think S&P moves, GDP prints), like a mini-market prediction league. Robinhood’s move-alike trend continues.

  
  

TL;DR: Jobs Slowing & Retail Still Squeezed

• Jobs: Layoff filings jumped; unemployment is likely to rise. Be cautious on labor-sensitive sectors.

• Retail Watch: Walmart revenue + e-commerce are strong, but profit miss shows cost pressures creeping in. Retail isn’t totally blue—still more gray.

• We’re seeing a cautious vibe: retailers missing earnings, tech playing defense, and markets bracing for Fed cues. Stick around for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech—it could steer what comes next.