GOOGLE KEEPING CHROME CHANGES THE MARKETS TONE

Dollar Tree (DLTR) Q2 Recap: Beat, Raise, Then Tumble 😬📉

The Gain: Strong Q2 Results

• EPS: Adjusted $0.77 vs. $0.42 expected → super impressive

• Revenue: $4.57B vs. expectation of $4.48B; comp-store sales grew +6.5%. Tariff timing added a positive boost to earnings.

• Full-year outlook raised:

  • Net Sales: $19.3B–$19.5B

  • Adjusted EPS: $5.32–$5.72

• Family Dollar sale done. Focus turned to core brand.

• Stock popped +50% YTD—but dipped ~6–7% after earnings on Q3 guidance caution.   

The Miss: Skepticism on Q3

• Q3 forecast calls for flat EPS vs. last year’s $1.12, while analysts estimated ~$1.33. Investors bailed on near-term hit despite Q2 beat.

Highlights Wrapped

• +6.5% comp-store net sales (better than expected)

• 106 new stores

• 585 store conversions to multi-price format

• Gross margin up, operating income up ~7%

• $1B+ in buybacks already executed

• Tariff-mitigation strategies paying off

Campbell’s (CPB) Q4: Souped-Up Headlines & What to Watch

What Actually Happened

• Adjusted EPS: $0.62 — smashed the Zacks estimate of $0.57 (+8.8% surprise)   

• Revenue: $2.32 billion — just shy of the $2.33B forecast, up 1.2% YoY   

• Organic Sales: Dropped ~3% — underlying demand still soft   

Segment Highlights

• Meals & Beverages: ~$1.20B vs est. $1.23B (+0.2% animal, slight beat)

• Snacks: ~$1.12B vs est. $1.11B (+2.4%, small beat)

• Operating Earnings: Meals & Bevvies $200M (vs $197M est.), Snacks $159M (vs $150M est.) — beats across the board

Full-Year Recap

• Net Sales: +6% to ~$10.25B (thanks partly to that 53rd week & Sovos acquisition)

• Adjusted EPS: ~$2.97 (down ~4% YoY)

• Cash Flow: $1.1B; dividends + buybacks = $521M returned to shareholders

Looking Ahead—2026 Guidance

• Adjusted EPS forecast: $2.40–$2.55 (below analyst $2.63) — anticipate 12–18% drop

• Net Sales: Flat to -2%

• Tariff Impact: Adds ~4% to cost of goods sold; company aiming to offset with expanded cost-savings ($375M goal vs $145M achieved so far)   

Market Reaction:

Stock popped ~1–3% pre-market on the earnings beat, despite year-to-date being down ~25% versus the S&P 500 being up ~9%.

Quick Fundamental & Technical Snapshot

Fundamentals:

• P/E: Modest — consumer staples lean lower, but trailing earnings down YoY

• Dividend Yield: Attractive ~5%, safe buy for income crew

• Profit Margins: Slight pressure—snacks segment down 2%, meals flat; productivity and cost savings helping

Technicals:

• Support: Around recent low near $30–31 zone

• Resistance: ~$32–33 (last pre-market spike)

• Current dip: Market pricing in tariffs and demand softness; earnings beat gave buyers a little room.

Macy’s Q2 Glow-Up: “From Turnaround to Takeoff” 🛍️🚀

Headline Highlights:

• Adjusted EPS: $0.41 vs. estimate $0.19 → ~116% beat!

• Revenue: $4.81–5.00B vs. ~$4.7B estimate → +2–3% surprise.

• Same-Store Sales: +0.8–1.9% (first growth since early 2022) — best in 12 quarters.     

• Guidance Raised: Full-year EPS now $1.70–2.05 (midpoint $1.88) vs. previous $1.60–2.00; Sales outlook bumped to ~$21.3B.

• Stock Reaction: Jumped ~20% in a day — biggest surge since 2021.   

Why It Mattered — Real Reasons Behind the Spike

1. Store Makeovers Paying Off: “Reimagine 125” refurbs lifted sales by +1.1%, while Bloomingdale’s soared +3.6%, and beauty chain Bluemercury extended a growth streak — 18 straight quarters.   

2. Lean Costs + Smart Ops: Macy’s cut $29M in SG&A while investing in the stores that work. Plus, they raised extra cash by closing stores and reducing debt.  

3. Diversified Brands Leading Gains: The layered mix of Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s, and Bluemercury is starting to show its power.

Snapshot > Fun Table (but in bullet style)

• EPS Beat: $0.41 actual vs $0.19 est → Huge Beat!

• Revenue Beat: $4.8–5B vs $4.7B est → Easy over

• Same-Store Sales: +1.9% O+L+M — best in years

• Gross Margin: 39.7% (down 0.8 pts from last year due to markdowns/tariffs)

• Cost Control: $29M saved vs last year

• Guidance Raised: EPS now $1.70–2.05; Sales nudge up

• Stock Reaction: +20% in a day

Fundamentals & Technical Levels — How to Think About the Stock Now

Fundamentals (approx & fun style):

• P/E: Usually low-mid teens (value retail style)

• Dividend Yield: ~2–3% (gets your attention in retail)

• Balance Sheet: Taking control — debt reduction underway, liquidity rising

• Margins: Leaner comps vs inflation, but improving if stores sustain momentum

Technicals:

• Support Zone: Around $13–$14 (prior consolidation)

• Resistance: $16–$17 (today’s tops)

• Chart Setup: Think breakout zone — last week’s range is now either buy-the-dip level or breakout pop area.

Who’s Winning — From Best to Watchers

1. Macy’s (M): ⭐ Best star today — comps up, guidance raised, showing strategy working

2. Peers (e.g., Kohl’s, Dillard’s): Trading up after decent comps too — but Macy’s just had the bigger move

3. Other underperformers: Still reading the turnaround tea leaves

Bottom Line Cheering Section

• What’s hot: Refreshed stores, better sales, smart cost cuts, upgraded guidance = recipe for investor high-fives

• Still risky? Sure — retail is fickle, tariffs hang around, and markdowns pressure margins

Strategy:

• Short-term: Riding the comeback wave — watch for pullbacks to ~$14–15

• Mid to long-term: If you believe in the “Bold New Chapter” plan, this is starting to look like compounding potential

Alphabet/Google (GOOGL) —

Antitrust Win = Stock Jump

• Judge ruled no forced break-up of Google, allowing Chrome and Android control to stay intact. Google must share search data but avoid exclusive contracts.    

• Stock Reaction: Jumped ~6–8% after-hours. Apple bumped ~3–4% too thanks to default search deal security.   

Quick Vibe Check:

• Why It Matters: Preserves key tech monopolies while tempering antitrust heat.

• Why Stay Wary: Next-gen AI rivals and ad-trial ahead could bring fresh waves.