BIG MONEY MOVES TO UNITED HEALTHCARE N CHINA MOVES FROM BULL TO BEAR

🌏 Flows & Big-Name Moves — “Signals from the whales” 🐳

• Tepper ➜ UNH: “Quality on sale” signal.

• Bridgewater: Trimming big China internet stakes, reflecting ongoing macro/policy caution.

• Michael Burry: Portfolio shows value-contrarian tilts (mentions include Alibaba, Meta, UNH)—he hunts dislocations.

• Berkshire & UNH chatter: Headlines connecting the two fuel the “quality healthcare” narrative. Buys 5 million shares!

😬 Macro Mood — “Vibes down, yields twitching” 📉

• Consumer sentiment dipped, nudging stocks lower—tariffs, jobs cooldown, and sticky service inflation weigh on confidence.

• Read-through: If sentiment stays weak, rate cuts help multiples but earnings expectations may need trimming.

💜 Nu Holdings (NU) — “Fintech beast keeps beasting” 🚀

• Q2 vs. expectations: Report out pointed to beats on key metrics (users, revenue, profitability) as NU keeps adding customers across LatAm and monetizing better.

• Stock reaction: Generally positive—NU’s “keep-winning” narrative stayed intact.

• Outlook: More cross-sell (credit, savings, investments), higher ARPAC, continued Brazil/Mexico/Colombia expansion.

• 3-yr vibe: Hypergrowth ➜ scaling profits.

• Analysts: Mostly Buy/Overweight; valuation rich but supported by growth.

• Fundamentals (ballpark): P/E high-teens–20s as profits scale; P/B above most banks (fintech premium); P/S elevated; net margins rising; D/E low to moderate for a lender; no dividend.

• Whales: Berkshire’s LatAm focus (via Stone historically), plus Vanguard/BlackRock are common top holders in mega-caps/ADRs.

• Stance: Bullish ST/MT/LT while execution stays clean.

🏥 UnitedHealth (UNH) — “Big money buying the dip” 🛒

• News: David Tepper reportedly scooped UNH after the big selloff tied to reimbursement/cyber issues—classic “quality on sale” move.

• Stock reaction: Stabilizing; flows from respected buyers help sentiment.

• Outlook: Scale in Medicare/Optum, long runway in managed care/data analytics; headline risk remains.

• 3-yr vibe: Compounder, temporarily off-trend in 2025.

• Analysts: Mostly Buy; viewed as a core healthcare compounder.

• Fundamentals (typical): P/E mid- to high-teens, P/FCF attractive for a defensive; dividend ~1–1.5% with low payout; D/E modest; operating margin solid for the sector.

• Whales: Berkshire has bought 5million shares around $417 Vanguard/BlackRock/State Street.

• Stance: Bullish MT/LT, cautious ST (policy noise).

1) Target (TGT) — Downgraded to “Underweight”

• Why? Barclays slashed its rating, pointing to a few core issues: sinking sales (−2.8% last quarter), shrinking profits, inventory chaos, staff shortages, and messy stores—they reckon Target’s “turnaround plan” isn’t really turning. Meanwhile, frequent shoppers are drifting to Walmart and Costco.

• Headline: Dropped to Underweight with a $91 price target.

• Street Sense: The narrative? “Value retailers like Walmart have pricing power and better digital/delivery.” Only ~25% of analysts still call Target a Buy.

• Cisco and QSR downgraded to hold

  
  

2) Salesforce (CRM) — Upgraded to “Neutral”

• What just happened: DA Davidson took Salesforce from Underperform to Neutral, still at a $225 price target. They say the stock’s slump (~30% YTD) has factored in its slowdown and competition.

• What’s behind it: Starboard Value upped its stake by nearly 50%—activist pressure could push margins and cost discipline further. Salesforce is betting big on the AI-powered Agentforce, but DA’s cautious—execution timelines and cost visibility remain murky.

• Fun Fact: Average analyst target from Visible Alpha? ~$362 (implying 30–40% upside), though DA stays conservative.

• Wingstop upgraded also to strong buy