BIG BANKS BLOSSOM MARKET NEWS IS AWESOME

🔍 BIG BANKS: JP MORGAN, CITI, BLACKROCK, WELLS FARGO

• JP Morgan crushed Q2 expectations—$45.7 B revenue vs ~$44 B expected, $5.24 EPS vs ~$4.48—driven by big gains in trading and markets, though Jamie Dimon warned about tariffs, geopolitical risks, and debt pressures 

  • Stock Reaction: Jumped premarket, then slipped ~1.1% as some expected too much from guidance  .

  • Analyst Targets: Median price ~$302.50; range $240–$336; mostly “Overweight/Buy”  .

  • Valuation & Fundamentals: P/B ~2.8×, strong AUM growth & buybacks; dividend ~$1.50/quarter. Analysts see it as a Strong Buy/Outperform 

  • “WE WILL NOT BE BUYING BACK STOCKS AT 3x BOOK VALUE”

  
  

• Citigroup jumped with net income up 25% to $4 B, EPS $1.96 vs $1.60 expected, and growth in their “services” business labeled a “crown jewel” by CEO Jane Fraser 

• Stock Reaction: Shares +~1% after report; +25% YTD ().

• Analyst Targets: Average target ~$87.9, Truist at $93 with Buy rating; mostly Moderate Buy/Hold  .

• Valuation: P/E ~13.5–16, yield ~2.6%; seen as undervalued compared to peers

• BlackRock reached a record $12.5 T in assets (up 18%), revenue rose ~13% to $5.42 B, and earnings hit $12.05/share, boosted by private-credit expansion efforts 

• Stock Reaction: Shares slid ~6% — likely profit-taking after rally ().

• Analyst Targets: Avg target ~$1,165 (range $950–$1,261); P/E ~27× (trailing), ~23× forward  .

• Outlook: Strong AUM growth, private-credit expansion. Analysts positive but cautious on valuation  .

• Wells Fargo also beat expectations, assets reached $1.98 T after the Fed lifted its growth cap—though stock dipped on cautious forecasts 

• Stock Reaction: Stock dropped 3–5% premarket on lowered NII outlook  .

• Analyst Targets: Median ~$87.5, high $96; forward P/E ~13× (below industry ~14.6×)  .

• Outlook: Beat earnings but margin pressure; watch interest rate trends closely.

📈 INFLATION & FED POLICY

• June CPI rose +0.3% month-over-month, bringing annual inflation to ~2.7%—right in line with expectations  .

• This uptick raises the odds (~60%) that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice later in 2025, possibly starting around September a tailwind for stocks.

🤖 TECH WIN: NVIDIA & H20 CHIPS IN CHINA

• The U.S. lifted restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 AI chip sales to China, unlocking an estimated $10–17 B in growth potential for FY26 

• Chinese firms are already scrambling to buy them, and analysts predict a 10% bump in Nvidia’s growth outlook 

• Nvidia stock surged ~5% intraday to new all‑time highs on the news—this is a major positive for tech momentum 

📊 THE TRADE DESK ENTERS S&P 500

• The Trade Desk (ad-tech company) is replacing Ansys in the S&P 500 index starting July 18, triggering an ~11–15% share-price bump as index funds buy in

  • What They Do: Cloud-based platform for programmatic ad buying.

  • Recent Move: Jumped ~14–15% pre-/post-market on inclusion in S&P 500 effective July 18  .

  • Fundamentals & Technicals: Volatile historically (dropped 64% in 2022, recovered). Solid margins & growth, but valued richly; S&P entry triggers passive inflows  .

  • Why It’s Hot: Inclusion brings liquidity, momentum; attractive to growth investors

  
  

🔻 Worst risk for newbies: chasing bank stocks without watching macro risks like inflation, tariffs, or bond market stress.

💡 TL;DR FOR INVESTORS

• Banks: Generally healthy fundamentals, but keep an eye on global risks & Fed moves.

• Inflation: Still sticky at 2.7% → markets pricing in Fed rate cuts (~60% chance).

• Tech: Nvidia is the clear steal—massive upside with H20 chips back in China.

• Index news: The Trade Desk’s S&P inclusion gives it a nice short-term jolt.

🧭 FINAL SNACKABLE TAKEAWAYS

• Tech lovers: Nvidia is 🔥—prime pick for long-term growth.

• Risk-averse: BlackRock is reliable, diversified, and built to last.

• Bank followers: JPM & Citi trading on solid performance; macro headwinds need watching.

• Newbies: Use the S&P news as a lesson in passive investing—index inclusion matters