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911k OFF LABOR MARKETS BEEN EXTRA SOFT


1.  Economy Vibe Check: What Just Happened?


Big Jobs Data Surprise: The U.S. economy added a whopping 911,000 fewer jobs between April 2024 and March 2025 than previously estimated — the largest downward revision ever from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That means the labor market was weaker than we thought  .


Market Reaction: The S&P 500 slipped ~0.1%, 10-year Treasury yields dropped, and the dollar went up. All signs pointed to a potential Federal Reserve interest-rate cut being more likely  .


Takeaway: The numbers suggest the economy’s less strong than we thought — which could mean cheaper borrowing rates ahead. Good news for people and companies that borrow, but also a hint of cooling growth.


2. UnitedHealth Group (UNH): Why Did Its Stock Ball Out?


What’s the Buzz?


UNH stock jumped ~9% after it revealed that 78% of its Medicare Advantage enrollees are expected to be in 4-star (or above) plans. This matters because the U.S. government pays big bonuses for high-quality plans — and that drives profits  .


Earnings Snapshot


  • Q1 2025: Adjusted EPS was $7.20, missing the expected ~$7.25. Revenue also disappointed. UNH slashed its full-year outlook from ~$29 to ~$26 EPS (adjusted), sending the stock down ~22% in a single day  .

  • Q2 2025: Adjusted EPS came in at $4.08, below analysts’ $4.48 estimates. UNH reaffirmed a full-year EPS outlook of at least $16.00, still way below previous ~26–27 projections  .


What’s Next?


Despite short-term pain, UNH is projecting a return to earnings growth in 2026. That’s a silver lining if you’re patient  .


3. Fundamentals + Technicals: Is UNH a Catch or a Caution?


Fundamental Ratios (approximate, based on typical data)


(Note: Specific up-to-date ratios require data pull; here’s a general framework.)


  • P/E (Price/Earnings): Currently elevated due to lower earnings—but future growth may justify it.

  • EPS (Earnings Per Share): Adjusted EPS ~ $4.08 for Q2.

  • PB / PS / P/FCF: Probably in line with industry — health insurers typically trade around 3–4× book.

  • Dividend yield & payout: UNH traditionally pays a solid ~1.3–1.5%.

  • Debt-to-Equity: Moderate — insurers often carry some debt but generate stable cash.

  • Profit Margins: Q2 operating margin for UnitedHealthcare dropped to ~2.4% (from ~5.4% in Q2 2024), due to higher medical costs  .


Technical Levels (support/resistance — approximate insights)


  • Support: Around the levels reached in April after the crash (~–30% year-to-date mark).

  • Resistance: Post-jump highs after the Medicare Advantage news (that 9% surge).


Recent Performance & Response


  • Crashed ~22% in April on earnings/missed projections.

  • Rebounded modestly later as markets stabilized.

  • Shot up ~9% now on Medicare Advantage news.


4. Analyst Ratings + Price Targets


  • After the April sell-off and Q2 miss, many analysts downgraded or stuck to “Hold”.

  • Post-news, some are cautiously optimistic—but generally price targets are still below prior highs (e.g., in the range of $550–$600 versus recent prices ~ $600-$650).

  • Sentiment: Short-term slightly bullish on optimism, mid-term mixed, long-term hopeful if 2026 growth returns.


5. Who’s Rooting for UNH?


  • Large institutional investors like Vanguard, BlackRock, and other big mutual/fund investors typically hold significant positions in UNH.

  • Buffet Tepper and Burry bought big last quarter around $400


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